Rate Championships 2024 · Analysis
Rate Championships 2024, by the numbers
Quang Duong won the Men's Singles final with a 34% chance going in.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Doubles51%
- Men's Singles34%
- Women's Doubles78%
- Women's Singles44%
- Mixed Doubles87%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Doubles | 51% |
| Men's Singles | 34% |
| Women's Doubles | 78% |
| Women's Singles | 44% |
| Mixed Doubles | 87% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Roscoe Bellamy beat Ben JohnsMen's Singles, Round 16 · 4-11, 11-7, 11-57%chance
- Genie Bouchard beat Lea JansenWomen's Singles, Round 16 · 11-4, 11-812%chance
- Quang Duong / Allyce Jones beat Federico Staksrud / Rachel RohrabacherMixed Doubles, Round 16 · 11-7, 11-413%chance
- Brooke Buckner / Chao Yi Wang beat Etta Tuionetoa / Meghan DizonWomen's Doubles, Round 16 · 11-4, 4-11, 11-725%chance
- Connor Garnett beat Federico StaksrudMen's Singles, Semi-Finals · 9-11, 11-6, 11-926%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Quang Duong+3.2
- Kate Fahey+1.5
- Allyce Jones+1.3
- Collin Johns+1.3
- Connor Garnett+1.2
- Genie Bouchard+1.2
- Rachel Rohrabacher−0.6
- Gabriel Tardio−0.8
- Hayden Patriquin−0.8
- Dekel Bar−0.9
- Jaume Martinez Vich−1.0
- Mary Brascia−1.3
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Quang Duong | +3.2 | won 7 of 9, odds said 3.8 |
| Kate Fahey | +1.5 | won 5 of 7, odds said 3.5 |
| Allyce Jones | +1.3 | won 3 of 5, odds said 1.7 |
| Collin Johns | +1.3 | won 4 of 4, odds said 2.7 |
| Connor Garnett | +1.2 | won 6 of 8, odds said 4.8 |
| Genie Bouchard | +1.2 | won 2 of 4, odds said 0.8 |
| Rachel Rohrabacher | −0.6 | won 4 of 6, odds said 4.6 |
| Gabriel Tardio | −0.8 | won 2 of 5, odds said 2.8 |
| Hayden Patriquin | −0.8 | won 2 of 4, odds said 2.8 |
| Dekel Bar | −0.9 | won 2 of 4, odds said 2.9 |
| Jaume Martinez Vich | −1.0 | won 1 of 4, odds said 2.0 |
| Mary Brascia | −1.3 | won 1 of 4, odds said 2.3 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2024.
- R64 (5)80%
- R32 (32)78%
- R16 (34)62%
- QF (20)80%
- Final (5)60%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2024 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (5) | 80% | 2024: 77% |
| R32 (32) | 78% | 2024: 75% |
| R16 (34) | 62% | 2024: 79% |
| QF (20) | 80% | 2024: 73% |
| Final (5) | 60% | 2024: 74% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2024 event. Lower means more upsets.
- IHG Hotels & Resorts Bristol Open68%
- Selkirk Kansas City Open70%
- Picklr Utah Open71%
- Vizzy Atlanta Open71%
- CIBC Texas Open72%
- Rate Championships73%
- Las Vegas Pickleball Cup74%
- CIBC PPA Finals75%
- CIBC Atlanta Slam75%
- Veolia Sacramento Open76%
- Daytona Beach Open78%
- Stratusphere Gin Virginia Beach Cup78%
- Veolia Milwaukee Open78%
- Lapiplasty® Pickleball World Championships78%
- Select Medical Orange County Cup79%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| IHG Hotels & Resorts Bristol Open | 68% |
| Selkirk Kansas City Open | 70% |
| Picklr Utah Open | 71% |
| Vizzy Atlanta Open | 71% |
| CIBC Texas Open | 72% |
| Rate Championships | 73% |
| Las Vegas Pickleball Cup | 74% |
| CIBC PPA Finals | 75% |
| CIBC Atlanta Slam | 75% |
| Veolia Sacramento Open | 76% |
| Daytona Beach Open | 78% |
| Stratusphere Gin Virginia Beach Cup | 78% |
| Veolia Milwaukee Open | 78% |
| Lapiplasty® Pickleball World Championships | 78% |
| Select Medical Orange County Cup | 79% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Oct 13, 2024 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- PIKKL (3)+2.1
- CRBN (3)+1.7
- Paddletek (5)+1.5
- Joola (17)+0.6
- Luzz (4)+0.0
- Franklin (5)−1.6
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| PIKKL (3) | +2.1 | won 15 of 22, expected 12.9 |
| CRBN (3) | +1.7 | won 7 of 13, expected 5.3 |
| Paddletek (5) | +1.5 | won 13 of 20, expected 11.5 |
| Joola (17) | +0.6 | won 55 of 91, expected 54.4 |
| Luzz (4) | +0.0 | won 3 of 11, expected 3.0 |
| Franklin (5) | −1.6 | won 12 of 19, expected 13.6 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
Every event's analysis, weekly
Upsets, odds and who beat them, plus results and paddle news, in one free weekly email. We're starting soon: join now to get the first issue.