Stratusphere Gin Virginia Beach Cup 2024 · Analysis
Stratusphere Gin Virginia Beach Cup 2024, by the numbers
Federico Staksrud / Hayden Patriquin won the Men's Doubles final with a 35% chance going in.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Doubles35%
- Men's Singles75%
- Mixed Doubles88%
- Women's Doubles76%
- Women's Singles87%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Doubles | 35% |
| Men's Singles | 75% |
| Mixed Doubles | 88% |
| Women's Doubles | 76% |
| Women's Singles | 87% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Lauren Stratman / Julian Arnold beat Anna Bright / Andrei DaescuMixed Doubles, Round 16 · 12-10, 11-213%chance
- Jaume Martinez Vich beat Federico StaksrudMen's Singles, Bronze · 13-11, 11-814%chance
- Hunter Johnson beat Federico StaksrudMen's Singles, Semi-Finals · 11-7, 11-617%chance
- Riley Newman / Jackie Kawamoto beat Christian Alshon / Catherine ParenteauMixed Doubles, Quarter Finals · 9-11, 14-12, 11-723%chance
- Ryan Sherry beat Naveen BeasleyMen's Singles, Round 32 · 4-11, 12-10, 11-724%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Riley Newman+2.5
- Brooke Buckner+2.0
- Hunter Johnson+1.7
- Jackie Kawamoto+1.6
- Lauren Stratman+1.3
- Hayden Patriquin+1.2
- Collin Johns−0.8
- Tina Pisnik−0.8
- Catherine Parenteau−1.1
- Christian Alshon−1.2
- Andrei Daescu−1.3
- Lacy Schneemann−1.5
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Newman | +2.5 | won 5 of 8, odds said 2.5 |
| Brooke Buckner | +2.0 | won 6 of 9, odds said 4.0 |
| Hunter Johnson | +1.7 | won 5 of 8, odds said 3.3 |
| Jackie Kawamoto | +1.6 | won 4 of 6, odds said 2.4 |
| Lauren Stratman | +1.3 | won 3 of 5, odds said 1.7 |
| Hayden Patriquin | +1.2 | won 4 of 5, odds said 2.8 |
| Collin Johns | −0.8 | won 3 of 5, odds said 3.8 |
| Tina Pisnik | −0.8 | won 2 of 5, odds said 2.8 |
| Catherine Parenteau | −1.1 | won 5 of 7, odds said 6.1 |
| Christian Alshon | −1.2 | won 2 of 4, odds said 3.2 |
| Andrei Daescu | −1.3 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.3 |
| Lacy Schneemann | −1.5 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.5 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2024.
- R64 (3)67%
- R32 (27)67%
- R16 (32)84%
- QF (18)89%
- Final (5)80%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2024 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (3) | 67% | 2024: 77% |
| R32 (27) | 67% | 2024: 75% |
| R16 (32) | 84% | 2024: 79% |
| QF (18) | 89% | 2024: 73% |
| Final (5) | 80% | 2024: 74% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2024 event. Lower means more upsets.
- IHG Hotels & Resorts Bristol Open68%
- Selkirk Kansas City Open70%
- Picklr Utah Open71%
- Vizzy Atlanta Open71%
- CIBC Texas Open72%
- Rate Championships73%
- Las Vegas Pickleball Cup74%
- CIBC PPA Finals75%
- CIBC Atlanta Slam75%
- Veolia Sacramento Open76%
- Daytona Beach Open78%
- Stratusphere Gin Virginia Beach Cup78%
- Veolia Milwaukee Open78%
- Lapiplasty® Pickleball World Championships78%
- Select Medical Orange County Cup79%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| IHG Hotels & Resorts Bristol Open | 68% |
| Selkirk Kansas City Open | 70% |
| Picklr Utah Open | 71% |
| Vizzy Atlanta Open | 71% |
| CIBC Texas Open | 72% |
| Rate Championships | 73% |
| Las Vegas Pickleball Cup | 74% |
| CIBC PPA Finals | 75% |
| CIBC Atlanta Slam | 75% |
| Veolia Sacramento Open | 76% |
| Daytona Beach Open | 78% |
| Stratusphere Gin Virginia Beach Cup | 78% |
| Veolia Milwaukee Open | 78% |
| Lapiplasty® Pickleball World Championships | 78% |
| Select Medical Orange County Cup | 79% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Oct 6, 2024 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- Franklin (5)+1.6
- Adidas (2)+1.5
- 11Six24 (3)+1.2
- PIKKL (4)+1.2
- Paddletek (5)+0.8
- Luzz (3)+0.7
- CRBN (4)−1.1
- Joola (16)−3.0
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Franklin (5) | +1.6 | won 19 of 25, expected 17.4 |
| Adidas (2) | +1.5 | won 7 of 11, expected 5.5 |
| 11Six24 (3) | +1.2 | won 7 of 13, expected 5.8 |
| PIKKL (4) | +1.2 | won 16 of 24, expected 14.8 |
| Paddletek (5) | +0.8 | won 11 of 21, expected 10.2 |
| Luzz (3) | +0.7 | won 7 of 13, expected 6.3 |
| CRBN (4) | −1.1 | won 4 of 10, expected 5.1 |
| Joola (16) | −3.0 | won 39 of 73, expected 42.0 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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