Selkirk Kansas City Open 2024 · Analysis
Selkirk Kansas City Open 2024, by the numbers
Federico Staksrud / Gabriel Tardio won the Men's Doubles final with a 26% chance going in.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Doubles26%
- Men's Singles58%
- Mixed Doubles86%
- Women's Doubles93%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Doubles | 26% |
| Men's Singles | 58% |
| Mixed Doubles | 86% |
| Women's Doubles | 93% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Tyson McGuffin beat Federico StaksrudMen's Singles, Semi-Finals · 11-8, 2-11, 11-813%chance
- Rafa Hewett beat Christian AlshonMen's Singles, Round 16 · 11-8, 11-915%chance
- Christian Alshon / Hayden Patriquin beat Ben Johns / Collin JohnsMen's Doubles, Bronze · 11-4, 11-321%chance
- Blaine Hovenier beat Spartak RahachouMen's Singles, Round 64 · 0-11, 11-8, 11-424%chance
- Christopher Haworth beat Federico StaksrudMen's Singles, Bronze · 11-7, 0-11, 11-924%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Jorja Johnson+2.6
- Connor Garnett+2.1
- Mari Humberg+2.0
- Gabriel Tardio+1.8
- Aanik Lohani+1.0
- Rafa Hewett+0.9
- Dylan Frazier−0.6
- Meghan Dizon−0.8
- Etta Tuionetoa−1.0
- Ben Johns−1.0
- Collin Johns−1.6
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Jorja Johnson | +2.6 | won 7 of 9, odds said 4.4 |
| Connor Garnett | +2.1 | won 6 of 7, odds said 3.9 |
| Mari Humberg | +2.0 | won 3 of 4, odds said 1.0 |
| Gabriel Tardio | +1.8 | won 4 of 5, odds said 2.2 |
| Aanik Lohani | +1.0 | won 2 of 3, odds said 1.0 |
| Rafa Hewett | +0.9 | won 2 of 4, odds said 1.1 |
| Dylan Frazier | −0.6 | won 3 of 5, odds said 3.6 |
| Meghan Dizon | −0.8 | won 3 of 6, odds said 3.8 |
| Etta Tuionetoa | −1.0 | won 2 of 5, odds said 3.0 |
| Ben Johns | −1.0 | won 5 of 7, odds said 6.0 |
| Collin Johns | −1.6 | won 2 of 5, odds said 3.6 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2024.
- R64 (3)67%
- R32 (11)73%
- R16 (20)80%
- QF (16)75%
- Final (4)75%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2024 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (3) | 67% | 2024: 77% |
| R32 (11) | 73% | 2024: 75% |
| R16 (20) | 80% | 2024: 79% |
| QF (16) | 75% | 2024: 73% |
| Final (4) | 75% | 2024: 74% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2024 event. Lower means more upsets.
- IHG Hotels & Resorts Bristol Open68%
- Selkirk Kansas City Open70%
- Picklr Utah Open71%
- Vizzy Atlanta Open71%
- CIBC Texas Open72%
- Rate Championships73%
- Las Vegas Pickleball Cup74%
- CIBC PPA Finals75%
- CIBC Atlanta Slam75%
- Veolia Sacramento Open76%
- Daytona Beach Open78%
- Stratusphere Gin Virginia Beach Cup78%
- Veolia Milwaukee Open78%
- Lapiplasty® Pickleball World Championships78%
- Select Medical Orange County Cup79%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| IHG Hotels & Resorts Bristol Open | 68% |
| Selkirk Kansas City Open | 70% |
| Picklr Utah Open | 71% |
| Vizzy Atlanta Open | 71% |
| CIBC Texas Open | 72% |
| Rate Championships | 73% |
| Las Vegas Pickleball Cup | 74% |
| CIBC PPA Finals | 75% |
| CIBC Atlanta Slam | 75% |
| Veolia Sacramento Open | 76% |
| Daytona Beach Open | 78% |
| Stratusphere Gin Virginia Beach Cup | 78% |
| Veolia Milwaukee Open | 78% |
| Lapiplasty® Pickleball World Championships | 78% |
| Select Medical Orange County Cup | 79% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Aug 11, 2024 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- Paddletek (2)+2.9
- PIKKL (3)+2.3
- Franklin (4)+0.6
- Joola (12)−0.6
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Paddletek (2) | +2.9 | won 10 of 14, expected 7.1 |
| PIKKL (3) | +2.3 | won 13 of 18, expected 10.7 |
| Franklin (4) | +0.6 | won 13 of 20, expected 12.4 |
| Joola (12) | −0.6 | won 30 of 53, expected 30.6 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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