Carvana Mesa Cup 2025 · Analysis
Carvana Mesa Cup 2025, by the numbers
Ben Johns won the Men's Singles final with a 46% chance going in.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Doubles51%
- Men's Singles46%
- Women's Doubles74%
- Women's Singles93%
- Mixed Doubles68%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Doubles | 51% |
| Men's Singles | 46% |
| Women's Doubles | 74% |
| Women's Singles | 93% |
| Mixed Doubles | 68% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Anna Bright / Dekel Bar beat Ben Johns / Anna Leigh WatersMixed Doubles, Semi-Finals · 12-10, 7-11, 11-94%chance
- Angie Walker beat Lina PadegimaiteWomen's Singles, Round 32 · 12-10, 11-223%chance
- Noe Khlif / Maggie Brascia beat Riley Newman / Lea JansenMixed Doubles, Round 32 · 5-11, 11-6, 11-923%chance
- Luke Wasson beat Ryan SherryMen's Singles, Round 64 · 0-11, 11-8, 11-425%chance
- Connor Garnett / Brooke Buckner beat Kate Fahey / Dylan FrazierMixed Doubles, Round 32 · 3-11, 11-5, 11-627%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Jorja Johnson+2.5
- Christian Alshon+1.7
- Brooke Buckner+1.7
- Vivian Glozman+1.6
- Dekel Bar+1.5
- Anna Bright+1.4
- Michael Loyd−0.9
- Federico Staksrud−1.0
- Parris Todd−1.1
- Hayden Patriquin−1.1
- Donald Young−1.3
- Lea Jansen−1.3
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Jorja Johnson | +2.5 | won 9 of 11, odds said 6.5 |
| Christian Alshon | +1.7 | won 9 of 11, odds said 7.3 |
| Brooke Buckner | +1.7 | won 6 of 9, odds said 4.3 |
| Vivian Glozman | +1.6 | won 4 of 6, odds said 2.4 |
| Dekel Bar | +1.5 | won 4 of 5, odds said 2.5 |
| Anna Bright | +1.4 | won 7 of 9, odds said 5.6 |
| Michael Loyd | −0.9 | won 0 of 3, odds said 0.9 |
| Federico Staksrud | −1.0 | won 8 of 13, odds said 9.0 |
| Parris Todd | −1.1 | won 2 of 5, odds said 3.1 |
| Hayden Patriquin | −1.1 | won 4 of 7, odds said 5.1 |
| Donald Young | −1.3 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.3 |
| Lea Jansen | −1.3 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.3 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2025.
- R64 (20)70%
- R32 (48)85%
- R16 (33)91%
- QF (20)85%
- Final (5)80%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2025 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (20) | 70% | 2025: 76% |
| R32 (48) | 85% | 2025: 79% |
| R16 (33) | 91% | 2025: 83% |
| QF (20) | 85% | 2025: 80% |
| Final (5) | 80% | 2025: 81% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2025 event. Lower means more upsets.
- Pickleball Central Sacramento Vintage Open72%
- Florida Dairy Farmers Daytona Beach Open75%
- Rate Vegas Cup presented by Holland America76%
- Walgreens Open at the Las Vegas Strip77%
- Select Medical Orange County Cup 202578%
- The Masters78%
- Veolia Bristol Open78%
- Proton Tucson Open78%
- Veolia Cape Coral Open79%
- Black Desert Resort Red Rock Open79%
- CIBC Texas Open80%
- Veolia North Carolina Open80%
- Fasenra Virginia Beach Cup presented by Joola81%
- Veolia Lakeland Open presented by Six Zero81%
- Jenius Bank Pickleball World Championships81%
- Veolia Cincinnati Showcase presented by Six Zero82%
- Carvana Mesa Cup82%
- Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships86%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| Pickleball Central Sacramento Vintage Open | 72% |
| Florida Dairy Farmers Daytona Beach Open | 75% |
| Rate Vegas Cup presented by Holland America | 76% |
| Walgreens Open at the Las Vegas Strip | 77% |
| Select Medical Orange County Cup 2025 | 78% |
| The Masters | 78% |
| Veolia Bristol Open | 78% |
| Proton Tucson Open | 78% |
| Veolia Cape Coral Open | 79% |
| Black Desert Resort Red Rock Open | 79% |
| CIBC Texas Open | 80% |
| Veolia North Carolina Open | 80% |
| Fasenra Virginia Beach Cup presented by Joola | 81% |
| Veolia Lakeland Open presented by Six Zero | 81% |
| Jenius Bank Pickleball World Championships | 81% |
| Veolia Cincinnati Showcase presented by Six Zero | 82% |
| Carvana Mesa Cup | 82% |
| Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships | 86% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Feb 23, 2025 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- 11Six24 (4)+3.0
- PIKKL (4)+2.9
- Adidas (3)+1.8
- MEHAU (2)+1.0
- Joola (19)+1.0
- Paddletek (5)+0.5
- Friday (2)+0.5
- Luzz (4)+0.2
- CRBN (5)−0.2
- Franklin (5)−3.4
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 11Six24 (4) | +3.0 | won 9 of 16, expected 6.0 |
| PIKKL (4) | +2.9 | won 21 of 30, expected 18.1 |
| Adidas (3) | +1.8 | won 9 of 15, expected 7.2 |
| MEHAU (2) | +1.0 | won 7 of 11, expected 6.0 |
| Joola (19) | +1.0 | won 60 of 102, expected 59.0 |
| Paddletek (5) | +0.5 | won 14 of 27, expected 13.5 |
| Friday (2) | +0.5 | won 7 of 12, expected 6.5 |
| Luzz (4) | +0.2 | won 6 of 13, expected 5.8 |
| CRBN (5) | −0.2 | won 8 of 15, expected 8.2 |
| Franklin (5) | −3.4 | won 19 of 31, expected 22.4 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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