Rate Vegas Cup presented by Holland America 2025 · Analysis
Rate Vegas Cup presented by Holland America 2025, by the numbers
The biggest upset: Genie Bouchard beat Kate Fahey with a 5% chance.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Doubles75%
- Men's Singles86%
- Mixed Doubles97%
- Women's Doubles86%
- Women's Singles99%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Doubles | 75% |
| Men's Singles | 86% |
| Mixed Doubles | 97% |
| Women's Doubles | 86% |
| Women's Singles | 99% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Genie Bouchard beat Kate FaheyWomen's Singles, Semi-Finals · 11-1, 10-12, 11-45%chance
- Alex Walker / Anderson Scarpa beat Dylan Frazier / Etta TuionetoaMixed Doubles, Round 32 · 11-8, 11-76%chance
- Marshall Brown beat Connor GarnettMen's Singles, Quarter Finals · 0-11, 11-9, 11-29%chance
- Roscoe Bellamy beat Christian AlshonMen's Singles, Round 16 · 9-11, 12-10, 11-79%chance
- Genie Bouchard beat Catherine ParenteauWomen's Singles, Round 16 · 11-8, 11-912%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Jessie Irvine+3.1
- Marshall Brown+2.7
- Roscoe Bellamy+2.7
- Genie Bouchard+2.6
- Gabriel Tardio+2.2
- Anderson Scarpa+1.9
- Lucy Kovalova−1.3
- Jorja Johnson−1.4
- Tina Pisnik−1.4
- JW Johnson−1.5
- Mary Brascia−1.5
- Dylan Frazier−2.5
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Jessie Irvine | +3.1 | won 6 of 9, odds said 2.9 |
| Marshall Brown | +2.7 | won 5 of 8, odds said 2.3 |
| Roscoe Bellamy | +2.7 | won 5 of 8, odds said 2.3 |
| Genie Bouchard | +2.6 | won 4 of 6, odds said 1.4 |
| Gabriel Tardio | +2.2 | won 7 of 8, odds said 4.8 |
| Anderson Scarpa | +1.9 | won 3 of 6, odds said 1.1 |
| Lucy Kovalova | −1.3 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.3 |
| Jorja Johnson | −1.4 | won 6 of 10, odds said 7.4 |
| Tina Pisnik | −1.4 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.4 |
| JW Johnson | −1.5 | won 7 of 10, odds said 8.5 |
| Mary Brascia | −1.5 | won 1 of 4, odds said 2.5 |
| Dylan Frazier | −2.5 | won 2 of 5, odds said 4.5 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2025.
- R64 (27)70%
- R32 (55)80%
- R16 (36)72%
- QF (19)74%
- Final (5)100%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2025 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (27) | 70% | 2025: 76% |
| R32 (55) | 80% | 2025: 79% |
| R16 (36) | 72% | 2025: 83% |
| QF (19) | 74% | 2025: 80% |
| Final (5) | 100% | 2025: 81% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2025 event. Lower means more upsets.
- Pickleball Central Sacramento Vintage Open72%
- Florida Dairy Farmers Daytona Beach Open75%
- Rate Vegas Cup presented by Holland America76%
- Walgreens Open at the Las Vegas Strip77%
- Select Medical Orange County Cup 202578%
- The Masters78%
- Veolia Bristol Open78%
- Proton Tucson Open78%
- Veolia Cape Coral Open79%
- Black Desert Resort Red Rock Open79%
- CIBC Texas Open80%
- Veolia North Carolina Open80%
- Fasenra Virginia Beach Cup presented by Joola81%
- Veolia Lakeland Open presented by Six Zero81%
- Jenius Bank Pickleball World Championships81%
- Veolia Cincinnati Showcase presented by Six Zero82%
- Carvana Mesa Cup82%
- Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships86%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| Pickleball Central Sacramento Vintage Open | 72% |
| Florida Dairy Farmers Daytona Beach Open | 75% |
| Rate Vegas Cup presented by Holland America | 76% |
| Walgreens Open at the Las Vegas Strip | 77% |
| Select Medical Orange County Cup 2025 | 78% |
| The Masters | 78% |
| Veolia Bristol Open | 78% |
| Proton Tucson Open | 78% |
| Veolia Cape Coral Open | 79% |
| Black Desert Resort Red Rock Open | 79% |
| CIBC Texas Open | 80% |
| Veolia North Carolina Open | 80% |
| Fasenra Virginia Beach Cup presented by Joola | 81% |
| Veolia Lakeland Open presented by Six Zero | 81% |
| Jenius Bank Pickleball World Championships | 81% |
| Veolia Cincinnati Showcase presented by Six Zero | 82% |
| Carvana Mesa Cup | 82% |
| Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships | 86% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Oct 26, 2025 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- Engage (2)+4.5
- CRBN (5)+4.1
- Luzz (5)+1.6
- Selkirk (3)+1.4
- Adidas (4)+0.8
- 11Six24 (5)+0.8
- Franklin (5)+0.4
- MEHAU (2)−0.2
- Paddletek (5)−0.8
- Joola (20)−3.1
- PIKKL (4)−3.9
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Engage (2) | +4.5 | won 11 of 18, expected 6.5 |
| CRBN (5) | +4.1 | won 13 of 22, expected 8.9 |
| Luzz (5) | +1.6 | won 10 of 21, expected 8.4 |
| Selkirk (3) | +1.4 | won 7 of 13, expected 5.6 |
| Adidas (4) | +0.8 | won 8 of 17, expected 7.2 |
| 11Six24 (5) | +0.8 | won 8 of 20, expected 7.2 |
| Franklin (5) | +0.4 | won 24 of 31, expected 23.6 |
| MEHAU (2) | −0.2 | won 7 of 12, expected 7.2 |
| Paddletek (5) | −0.8 | won 16 of 27, expected 16.8 |
| Joola (20) | −3.1 | won 59 of 104, expected 62.1 |
| PIKKL (4) | −3.9 | won 19 of 31, expected 22.9 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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