Carvana Mesa Cup 2026 · Analysis
Carvana Mesa Cup 2026, by the numbers
Anna Bright / Hayden Patriquin won the Mixed Doubles final with a 10% chance going in.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Doubles81%
- Men's Singles72%
- Mixed Doubles10%
- Women's Doubles87%
- Women's Singles91%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Doubles | 81% |
| Men's Singles | 72% |
| Mixed Doubles | 10% |
| Women's Doubles | 87% |
| Women's Singles | 91% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Lacy Schneemann / Jack Sock beat JW Johnson / Jorja JohnsonMixed Doubles, Round 16 · 11-6, 11-62%chance
- Judit Castillo / Genie Erokhina beat Rachel Rohrabacher / Catherine ParenteauWomen's Doubles, Round 16 · 11-7, 4-11, 11-84%chance
- Mari Humberg beat Kaitlyn ChristianWomen's Singles, Round 32 · 11-9, 2-11, 11-85%chance
- Anna Bright / Hayden Patriquin beat Anna Leigh Waters / Ben JohnsMixed Doubles, Finals · 11-8, 11-9, 11-310%chance
- Mary Brascia beat Lea JansenWomen's Singles, Round 16 · 11-6, 11-813%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Genie Erokhina+2.7
- Mari Humberg+1.9
- Hayden Patriquin+1.7
- Rafa Hewett+1.5
- Wes Burrows+1.5
- Judit Castillo+1.5
- Catherine Parenteau−1.4
- Anouar Braham−1.4
- Tyson McGuffin−1.5
- Marshall Brown−1.6
- Liz Truluck−1.6
- JW Johnson−2.2
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Genie Erokhina | +2.7 | won 4 of 7, odds said 1.3 |
| Mari Humberg | +1.9 | won 5 of 8, odds said 3.1 |
| Hayden Patriquin | +1.7 | won 9 of 10, odds said 7.3 |
| Rafa Hewett | +1.5 | won 4 of 7, odds said 2.5 |
| Wes Burrows | +1.5 | won 2 of 4, odds said 0.5 |
| Judit Castillo | +1.5 | won 4 of 8, odds said 2.5 |
| Catherine Parenteau | −1.4 | won 4 of 7, odds said 5.4 |
| Anouar Braham | −1.4 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.4 |
| Tyson McGuffin | −1.5 | won 2 of 5, odds said 3.5 |
| Marshall Brown | −1.6 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.6 |
| Liz Truluck | −1.6 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.6 |
| JW Johnson | −2.2 | won 4 of 7, odds said 6.2 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2026.
- R64 (38)74%
- R32 (61)85%
- R16 (38)74%
- QF (17)82%
- Final (5)80%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2026 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (38) | 74% | 2026: 78% |
| R32 (61) | 85% | 2026: 81% |
| R16 (38) | 74% | 2026: 80% |
| QF (17) | 82% | 2026: 78% |
| Final (5) | 80% | 2026: 76% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2026 event. Lower means more upsets.
- Macon PPA Challenger59%
- Charlotte PPA Challenger61%
- Boise PPA Challenger62%
- PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 202662%
- Atlanta PPA Challenger64%
- PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 202668%
- PPA Finals72%
- Grand Rapids PPA Challenger72%
- Rate Las Vegas Open76%
- Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup77%
- Veolia Chicago Cup78%
- Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet78%
- Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships78%
- Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open78%
- The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited79%
- Carvana Mesa Cup79%
- Veolia Texas Open80%
- SXY Newport Beach Open81%
- Veolia Arizona Open81%
- Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships82%
- Veolia Pickleball National Championships83%
- PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 202685%
- Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort86%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| Macon PPA Challenger | 59% |
| Charlotte PPA Challenger | 61% |
| Boise PPA Challenger | 62% |
| PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 2026 | 62% |
| Atlanta PPA Challenger | 64% |
| PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 2026 | 68% |
| PPA Finals | 72% |
| Grand Rapids PPA Challenger | 72% |
| Rate Las Vegas Open | 76% |
| Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup | 77% |
| Veolia Chicago Cup | 78% |
| Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet | 78% |
| Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships | 78% |
| Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open | 78% |
| The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited | 79% |
| Carvana Mesa Cup | 79% |
| Veolia Texas Open | 80% |
| SXY Newport Beach Open | 81% |
| Veolia Arizona Open | 81% |
| Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships | 82% |
| Veolia Pickleball National Championships | 83% |
| PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 2026 | 85% |
| Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort | 86% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Feb 22, 2026 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- Franklin (5)+1.5
- Joola (22)+1.0
- 11Six24 (5)+0.8
- Warping Point (3)+0.6
- Adidas (3)+0.4
- MEHAU (2)+0.1
- Six Zero (4)−0.1
- Selkirk (3)−0.2
- Engage (2)−0.5
- Luzz (6)−0.6
- CRBN (7)−1.0
- Paddletek (7)−1.4
- PIKKL (4)−2.6
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Franklin (5) | +1.5 | won 26 of 33, expected 24.5 |
| Joola (22) | +1.0 | won 74 of 128, expected 73.0 |
| 11Six24 (5) | +0.8 | won 9 of 21, expected 8.2 |
| Warping Point (3) | +0.6 | won 7 of 13, expected 6.4 |
| Adidas (3) | +0.4 | won 9 of 16, expected 8.6 |
| MEHAU (2) | +0.1 | won 5 of 10, expected 4.9 |
| Six Zero (4) | −0.1 | won 5 of 14, expected 5.1 |
| Selkirk (3) | −0.2 | won 5 of 13, expected 5.2 |
| Engage (2) | −0.5 | won 5 of 11, expected 5.5 |
| Luzz (6) | −0.6 | won 10 of 19, expected 10.6 |
| CRBN (7) | −1.0 | won 13 of 25, expected 14.0 |
| Paddletek (7) | −1.4 | won 14 of 26, expected 15.4 |
| PIKKL (4) | −2.6 | won 20 of 30, expected 22.6 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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