Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open 2026 · Analysis
Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open 2026, by the numbers
Federico Staksrud won the Men's Singles final with a 38% chance going in.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Doubles77%
- Men's Singles38%
- Mixed Doubles90%
- Women's Doubles93%
- Women's Singles79%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Doubles | 77% |
| Men's Singles | 38% |
| Mixed Doubles | 90% |
| Women's Doubles | 93% |
| Women's Singles | 79% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Genie Bouchard beat Kate FaheyWomen's Singles, Quarter Finals · 6-11, 11-7, 11-56%chance
- Donald Young / Hannah Blatt beat Angie Walker / James DelgadoMixed Doubles, Round 64 · 11-8, 11-915%chance
- Genie Bouchard beat Catherine ParenteauWomen's Singles, Semi-Finals · 11-9, 11-418%chance
- Augustus Ge / Mari Humberg beat Noe Khlif / Tina PisnikMixed Doubles, Round 16 · 5-11, 11-5, 11-819%chance
- Tama Shimabukuro / Yuta Funemizu beat Max Freeman / Tyson McGuffinMen's Doubles, Round 32 · 11-3, 2-11, 11-120%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Augustus Ge+2.9
- Tama Shimabukuro+2.3
- Christian Alshon+1.8
- Genie Bouchard+1.6
- Lacy Schneemann+1.3
- Hayden Patriquin+1.2
- Rafael Lenhard−1.3
- Jessie Irvine−1.3
- Catherine Parenteau−1.3
- Tyson McGuffin−1.4
- James Delgado−1.4
- Zane Navratil−1.7
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Augustus Ge | +2.9 | won 6 of 9, odds said 3.1 |
| Tama Shimabukuro | +2.3 | won 3 of 5, odds said 0.7 |
| Christian Alshon | +1.8 | won 11 of 14, odds said 9.2 |
| Genie Bouchard | +1.6 | won 3 of 6, odds said 1.4 |
| Lacy Schneemann | +1.3 | won 5 of 8, odds said 3.7 |
| Hayden Patriquin | +1.2 | won 6 of 8, odds said 4.8 |
| Rafael Lenhard | −1.3 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.3 |
| Jessie Irvine | −1.3 | won 1 of 4, odds said 2.3 |
| Catherine Parenteau | −1.3 | won 7 of 12, odds said 8.3 |
| Tyson McGuffin | −1.4 | won 2 of 4, odds said 3.4 |
| James Delgado | −1.4 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.4 |
| Zane Navratil | −1.7 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.7 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2026.
- R64 (40)68%
- R32 (59)83%
- R16 (36)83%
- QF (20)90%
- Final (5)80%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2026 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (40) | 68% | 2026: 78% |
| R32 (59) | 83% | 2026: 81% |
| R16 (36) | 83% | 2026: 80% |
| QF (20) | 90% | 2026: 78% |
| Final (5) | 80% | 2026: 76% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2026 event. Lower means more upsets.
- Macon PPA Challenger59%
- Charlotte PPA Challenger61%
- Boise PPA Challenger62%
- PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 202662%
- Atlanta PPA Challenger64%
- PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 202668%
- PPA Finals72%
- Grand Rapids PPA Challenger72%
- Rate Las Vegas Open76%
- Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup77%
- Veolia Chicago Cup78%
- Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet78%
- Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships78%
- Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open78%
- The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited79%
- Carvana Mesa Cup79%
- Veolia Texas Open80%
- SXY Newport Beach Open81%
- Veolia Arizona Open81%
- Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships82%
- Veolia Pickleball National Championships83%
- PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 202685%
- Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort86%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| Macon PPA Challenger | 59% |
| Charlotte PPA Challenger | 61% |
| Boise PPA Challenger | 62% |
| PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 2026 | 62% |
| Atlanta PPA Challenger | 64% |
| PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 2026 | 68% |
| PPA Finals | 72% |
| Grand Rapids PPA Challenger | 72% |
| Rate Las Vegas Open | 76% |
| Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup | 77% |
| Veolia Chicago Cup | 78% |
| Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet | 78% |
| Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships | 78% |
| Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open | 78% |
| The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited | 79% |
| Carvana Mesa Cup | 79% |
| Veolia Texas Open | 80% |
| SXY Newport Beach Open | 81% |
| Veolia Arizona Open | 81% |
| Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships | 82% |
| Veolia Pickleball National Championships | 83% |
| PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 2026 | 85% |
| Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort | 86% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Feb 15, 2026 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- Luzz (5)+4.0
- 11Six24 (5)+1.8
- Paddletek (6)+1.8
- MEHAU (2)+1.3
- Franklin (3)+0.7
- Friday (2)+0.4
- Joola (21)−0.3
- Engage (2)−0.4
- Warping Point (3)−0.5
- PIKKL (4)−0.9
- Six Zero (4)−1.3
- Adidas (4)−1.8
- CRBN (8)−2.3
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Luzz (5) | +4.0 | won 15 of 27, expected 11.0 |
| 11Six24 (5) | +1.8 | won 11 of 24, expected 9.2 |
| Paddletek (6) | +1.8 | won 20 of 34, expected 18.2 |
| MEHAU (2) | +1.3 | won 9 of 15, expected 7.7 |
| Franklin (3) | +0.7 | won 16 of 20, expected 15.3 |
| Friday (2) | +0.4 | won 8 of 14, expected 7.6 |
| Joola (21) | −0.3 | won 70 of 116, expected 70.3 |
| Engage (2) | −0.4 | won 6 of 11, expected 6.4 |
| Warping Point (3) | −0.5 | won 4 of 11, expected 4.5 |
| PIKKL (4) | −0.9 | won 19 of 30, expected 19.9 |
| Six Zero (4) | −1.3 | won 5 of 14, expected 6.3 |
| Adidas (4) | −1.8 | won 9 of 18, expected 10.8 |
| CRBN (8) | −2.3 | won 12 of 29, expected 14.3 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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