Veolia Arizona Open 2026 · Analysis
Veolia Arizona Open 2026, by the numbers
The biggest upset: Jalina Ingram beat Kaitlyn Christian with a 7% chance.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Singles56%
- Mixed Doubles93%
- Women's Doubles57%
- Women's Singles89%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Singles | 56% |
| Mixed Doubles | 93% |
| Women's Doubles | 57% |
| Women's Singles | 89% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Jalina Ingram beat Kaitlyn ChristianWomen's Singles, Round 16 · 12-14, 11-9, 11-67%chance
- Austin Bricker / Michael Loyd beat Dekel Bar / Dylan FrazierMen's Doubles, Round 16 · 4-11, 11-9, 11-710%chance
- Yates Johnson beat Connor GarnettMen's Singles, Round 32 · 3-11, 11-9, 11-917%chance
- Jaxon Madsen beat Zane FordMen's Singles, Round 64 · 15-13, 11-020%chance
- Judit Castillo beat Lea JansenWomen's Singles, Round 16 · 11-4, 8-11, 11-420%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Jalina Ingram+2.6
- Judit Castillo+2.1
- Tyson McGuffin+2.1
- Victoria DiMuzio+1.6
- Camden Chaffin+1.5
- Layne Sleeth+1.4
- Clayton Powell−1.2
- Luc Pham−1.2
- Anderson Scarpa−1.3
- Kaitlyn Christian−1.3
- Jace Morris−1.3
- Dekel Bar−1.5
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Jalina Ingram | +2.6 | won 5 of 8, odds said 2.4 |
| Judit Castillo | +2.1 | won 6 of 9, odds said 3.9 |
| Tyson McGuffin | +2.1 | won 5 of 7, odds said 2.9 |
| Victoria DiMuzio | +1.6 | won 3 of 6, odds said 1.4 |
| Camden Chaffin | +1.5 | won 3 of 4, odds said 1.5 |
| Layne Sleeth | +1.4 | won 3 of 5, odds said 1.6 |
| Clayton Powell | −1.2 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.2 |
| Luc Pham | −1.2 | won 1 of 4, odds said 2.2 |
| Anderson Scarpa | −1.3 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.3 |
| Kaitlyn Christian | −1.3 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.3 |
| Jace Morris | −1.3 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.3 |
| Dekel Bar | −1.5 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.5 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2026.
- R64 (50)80%
- R32 (46)76%
- R16 (31)81%
- QF (15)87%
- Final (4)100%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2026 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (50) | 80% | 2026: 78% |
| R32 (46) | 76% | 2026: 81% |
| R16 (31) | 81% | 2026: 80% |
| QF (15) | 87% | 2026: 78% |
| Final (4) | 100% | 2026: 76% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2026 event. Lower means more upsets.
- Macon PPA Challenger59%
- Charlotte PPA Challenger61%
- Boise PPA Challenger62%
- PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 202662%
- Atlanta PPA Challenger64%
- PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 202668%
- PPA Finals72%
- Grand Rapids PPA Challenger72%
- Rate Las Vegas Open76%
- Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup77%
- Veolia Chicago Cup78%
- Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet78%
- Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships78%
- Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open78%
- The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited79%
- Carvana Mesa Cup79%
- Veolia Texas Open80%
- SXY Newport Beach Open81%
- Veolia Arizona Open81%
- Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships82%
- Veolia Pickleball National Championships83%
- PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 202685%
- Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort86%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| Macon PPA Challenger | 59% |
| Charlotte PPA Challenger | 61% |
| Boise PPA Challenger | 62% |
| PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 2026 | 62% |
| Atlanta PPA Challenger | 64% |
| PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 2026 | 68% |
| PPA Finals | 72% |
| Grand Rapids PPA Challenger | 72% |
| Rate Las Vegas Open | 76% |
| Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup | 77% |
| Veolia Chicago Cup | 78% |
| Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet | 78% |
| Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships | 78% |
| Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open | 78% |
| The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited | 79% |
| Carvana Mesa Cup | 79% |
| Veolia Texas Open | 80% |
| SXY Newport Beach Open | 81% |
| Veolia Arizona Open | 81% |
| Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships | 82% |
| Veolia Pickleball National Championships | 83% |
| PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 2026 | 85% |
| Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort | 86% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Sep 20, 2026 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- Vulcan (2)+2.7
- Adidas (4)+2.6
- Franklin (5)+2.3
- Six Zero (2)+0.6
- Paddletek (6)+0.2
- Joola (21)−0.1
- MEHAU (2)−0.2
- Warping Point (3)−0.5
- Engage (2)−0.6
- CRBN (6)−1.4
- Luzz (5)−1.5
- 11Six24 (4)−2.5
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Vulcan (2) | +2.7 | won 8 of 13, expected 5.3 |
| Adidas (4) | +2.6 | won 13 of 21, expected 10.4 |
| Franklin (5) | +2.3 | won 20 of 25, expected 17.7 |
| Six Zero (2) | +0.6 | won 5 of 10, expected 4.4 |
| Paddletek (6) | +0.2 | won 14 of 25, expected 13.8 |
| Joola (21) | −0.1 | won 50 of 92, expected 50.1 |
| MEHAU (2) | −0.2 | won 9 of 15, expected 9.2 |
| Warping Point (3) | −0.5 | won 4 of 10, expected 4.5 |
| Engage (2) | −0.6 | won 5 of 10, expected 5.6 |
| CRBN (6) | −1.4 | won 10 of 19, expected 11.4 |
| Luzz (5) | −1.5 | won 12 of 23, expected 13.5 |
| 11Six24 (4) | −2.5 | won 4 of 10, expected 6.5 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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