PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 2026 · Analysis
PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 2026, by the numbers
Rika Fujiwara won the Women's Singles final with a 45% chance going in.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Doubles53%
- Men's Singles76%
- Mixed Doubles48%
- Women's Singles45%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Doubles | 53% |
| Men's Singles | 76% |
| Mixed Doubles | 48% |
| Women's Singles | 45% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Yufei Long / Len Yang beat Danni-Elle Townsend / Joey WildMixed Doubles, Semi-Finals · 11-4, 11-523%chance
- Jimmy Liong Kai Long beat Grayson GoldinMen's Singles, Round 16 · 10-12, 11-8, 11-928%chance
- Luc Pham / Grayson Goldin beat Lucas Pascoe / Joey WildMen's Doubles, Round 16 · 11-9, 6-11, 11-929%chance
- Mitchell Hargreaves beat Tama ShimabukuroMen's Singles, Quarter Finals · 9-11, 11-5, 11-930%chance
- Pei Chuan Kao beat Kiora KunimotoWomen's Singles, Semi-Finals · 9-11, 11-5, 12-1034%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Tama Shimabukuro+1.4
- Pei Chuan Kao+1.3
- Hong Kit Wong+1.3
- Yuta Funemizu+1.2
- Sahra Dennehy+1.2
- Luc Pham+0.6
- Wyatt Stone−0.5
- Grayson Goldin−0.6
- Zane Ford−0.7
- Aiko Yoshitomi−0.8
- Hannah Blatt−1.0
- Kiora Kunimoto−1.2
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Tama Shimabukuro | +1.4 | won 6 of 7, odds said 4.6 |
| Pei Chuan Kao | +1.3 | won 3 of 4, odds said 1.7 |
| Hong Kit Wong | +1.3 | won 6 of 7, odds said 4.7 |
| Yuta Funemizu | +1.2 | won 4 of 5, odds said 2.8 |
| Sahra Dennehy | +1.2 | won 4 of 4, odds said 2.8 |
| Luc Pham | +0.6 | won 2 of 4, odds said 1.4 |
| Wyatt Stone | −0.5 | won 1 of 4, odds said 1.5 |
| Grayson Goldin | −0.6 | won 1 of 4, odds said 1.6 |
| Zane Ford | −0.7 | won 2 of 4, odds said 2.7 |
| Aiko Yoshitomi | −0.8 | won 0 of 3, odds said 0.8 |
| Hannah Blatt | −1.0 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.0 |
| Kiora Kunimoto | −1.2 | won 3 of 7, odds said 4.2 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2026.
- R16 (12)67%
- QF (14)79%
- Final (4)50%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2026 average |
|---|---|---|
| R16 (12) | 67% | 2026: 80% |
| QF (14) | 79% | 2026: 78% |
| Final (4) | 50% | 2026: 76% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2026 event. Lower means more upsets.
- Macon PPA Challenger59%
- Charlotte PPA Challenger61%
- Boise PPA Challenger62%
- PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 202662%
- Atlanta PPA Challenger64%
- PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 202668%
- PPA Finals72%
- Grand Rapids PPA Challenger72%
- Rate Las Vegas Open76%
- Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup77%
- Veolia Chicago Cup78%
- Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet78%
- Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships78%
- Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open78%
- The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited79%
- Carvana Mesa Cup79%
- Veolia Texas Open80%
- SXY Newport Beach Open81%
- Veolia Arizona Open81%
- Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships82%
- Veolia Pickleball National Championships83%
- PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 202685%
- Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort86%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| Macon PPA Challenger | 59% |
| Charlotte PPA Challenger | 61% |
| Boise PPA Challenger | 62% |
| PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 2026 | 62% |
| Atlanta PPA Challenger | 64% |
| PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 2026 | 68% |
| PPA Finals | 72% |
| Grand Rapids PPA Challenger | 72% |
| Rate Las Vegas Open | 76% |
| Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup | 77% |
| Veolia Chicago Cup | 78% |
| Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet | 78% |
| Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships | 78% |
| Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open | 78% |
| The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited | 79% |
| Carvana Mesa Cup | 79% |
| Veolia Texas Open | 80% |
| SXY Newport Beach Open | 81% |
| Veolia Arizona Open | 81% |
| Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships | 82% |
| Veolia Pickleball National Championships | 83% |
| PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 2026 | 85% |
| Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort | 86% |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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