Grand Rapids PPA Challenger 2026 · Analysis
Grand Rapids PPA Challenger 2026, by the numbers
Lina Padegimaite / Isabella Dunlap won the Women's Doubles final with a 34% chance going in.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The finals: what the odds said
Each champion's chance of winning the final, before it started.
- Men's Singles73%
- Men's Doubles58%
- Women's Doubles34%
Show the numbers
| Final | Champion's chance |
|---|---|
| Men's Singles | 73% |
| Men's Doubles | 58% |
| Women's Doubles | 34% |
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Connor Allen Mogle / Audrey Adele Brown beat Allie Reichert / Juan VaronMixed Doubles, Round 4 · 15-720%chance
- Armaan Jiwa Mawji beat William HsiehMen's Singles, Quarter Finals · 11-7, 11-927%chance
- Eli Steiner beat Miles HooverMen's Singles, Semi-Finals · 11-5, 4-11, 11-628%chance
- Ethan Bakalinsky beat Wade HeerbothMen's Singles, Round 6 · 15-1032%chance
- Justin Dages beat Patrik Kevin Tsati-OnlaMen's Singles, Round 32 · 11-7, 11-633%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Mohaned Alhouni+1.9
- Ethan Bakalinsky+1.4
- Lina Padegimaite+1.3
- Isabella Dunlap+1.2
- Jaeda Minniefield+1.1
- Joel Poland+1.0
- Jake Anderson−0.8
- Matt Burkhardt−0.9
- Wade Heerboth−0.9
- Allie Reichert−1.2
- Averee Beck−1.3
- Juan Varon−1.6
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Mohaned Alhouni | +1.9 | won 6 of 6, odds said 4.1 |
| Ethan Bakalinsky | +1.4 | won 5 of 8, odds said 3.6 |
| Lina Padegimaite | +1.3 | won 3 of 3, odds said 1.7 |
| Isabella Dunlap | +1.2 | won 4 of 5, odds said 2.8 |
| Jaeda Minniefield | +1.1 | won 3 of 5, odds said 1.9 |
| Joel Poland | +1.0 | won 4 of 5, odds said 3.0 |
| Jake Anderson | −0.8 | won 2 of 5, odds said 2.8 |
| Matt Burkhardt | −0.9 | won 2 of 6, odds said 2.9 |
| Wade Heerboth | −0.9 | won 2 of 4, odds said 2.9 |
| Allie Reichert | −1.2 | won 2 of 5, odds said 3.2 |
| Averee Beck | −1.3 | won 0 of 3, odds said 1.3 |
| Juan Varon | −1.6 | won 2 of 5, odds said 3.6 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2026.
- R32 (8)88%
- R16 (11)82%
- QF (12)50%
- Final (3)67%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2026 average |
|---|---|---|
| R32 (8) | 88% | 2026: 81% |
| R16 (11) | 82% | 2026: 80% |
| QF (12) | 50% | 2026: 78% |
| Final (3) | 67% | 2026: 76% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2026 event. Lower means more upsets.
- Macon PPA Challenger59%
- Charlotte PPA Challenger61%
- Boise PPA Challenger62%
- PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 202662%
- Atlanta PPA Challenger64%
- PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 202668%
- PPA Finals72%
- Grand Rapids PPA Challenger72%
- Rate Las Vegas Open76%
- Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup77%
- Veolia Chicago Cup78%
- Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet78%
- Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships78%
- Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open78%
- The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited79%
- Carvana Mesa Cup79%
- Veolia Texas Open80%
- SXY Newport Beach Open81%
- Veolia Arizona Open81%
- Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships82%
- Veolia Pickleball National Championships83%
- PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 202685%
- Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort86%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| Macon PPA Challenger | 59% |
| Charlotte PPA Challenger | 61% |
| Boise PPA Challenger | 62% |
| PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 2026 | 62% |
| Atlanta PPA Challenger | 64% |
| PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 2026 | 68% |
| PPA Finals | 72% |
| Grand Rapids PPA Challenger | 72% |
| Rate Las Vegas Open | 76% |
| Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup | 77% |
| Veolia Chicago Cup | 78% |
| Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet | 78% |
| Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships | 78% |
| Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open | 78% |
| The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited | 79% |
| Carvana Mesa Cup | 79% |
| Veolia Texas Open | 80% |
| SXY Newport Beach Open | 81% |
| Veolia Arizona Open | 81% |
| Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships | 82% |
| Veolia Pickleball National Championships | 83% |
| PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 2026 | 85% |
| Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort | 86% |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 5,981 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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