Mojo Energy Pouches Virginia Beach Open 2026 · Analysis
Mojo Energy Pouches Virginia Beach Open 2026, by the numbers
The biggest upset: Braden Jacobson beat Matthew Finnerty with a 9% chance.
Every number here comes from PickleFitter Ratings as they stood before each match, replayed across every PPA Tour match since June 2023. For the results themselves, see the event page.
The biggest upsets
Main-draw wins with the lowest pre-match chance.
- Braden Jacobson beat Matthew FinnertyMen's Singles, Round 32 · 3-11, 11-2, 11-39%chance
- Max Freeman / Emma Nelson beat Jack Sock / Milan RaneMixed Doubles, Round 32 · 11-5, 3-11, 11-818%chance
- Travis Rettenmaier / Paula Rives Palau beat Nicole Conard / Will MackinnonMixed Doubles, Round 64 · 11-4, 11-521%chance
- Joshua Giannelli / Braylon Ohrel beat Connor Allen Mogle / Chris CrouchMen's Doubles, Round 64 · 11-5, 6-11, 11-722%chance
- Anderson Scarpa / Alex Walker beat Anouar Braham / Elsie HendershotMixed Doubles, Round 32 · 11-8, 11-929%chance
Who beat their odds
Main-draw wins minus the wins the pre-match odds expected, for players with three or more rated matches.
- Braden Jacobson+1.8
- Alex Walker+1.3
- Camden Chaffin+1.2
- Anderson Scarpa+1.2
- Yates Johnson+1.0
- John Lucian Goins+0.9
- Mohaned Alhouni−0.6
- Rio Newcombe−0.7
- Madalina Grigoriu−0.8
- Anouar Braham−1.0
- Jack Sock−1.4
- Connor Allen Mogle−1.6
Show the numbers
| Player | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Jacobson | +1.8 | won 3 of 4, odds said 1.2 |
| Alex Walker | +1.3 | won 3 of 3, odds said 1.7 |
| Camden Chaffin | +1.2 | won 4 of 5, odds said 2.8 |
| Anderson Scarpa | +1.2 | won 3 of 4, odds said 1.8 |
| Yates Johnson | +1.0 | won 3 of 3, odds said 2.0 |
| John Lucian Goins | +0.9 | won 4 of 4, odds said 3.1 |
| Mohaned Alhouni | −0.6 | won 2 of 4, odds said 2.6 |
| Rio Newcombe | −0.7 | won 1 of 4, odds said 1.7 |
| Madalina Grigoriu | −0.8 | won 0 of 3, odds said 0.8 |
| Anouar Braham | −1.0 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.0 |
| Jack Sock | −1.4 | won 1 of 3, odds said 2.4 |
| Connor Allen Mogle | −1.6 | won 1 of 4, odds said 2.6 |
Favourites, round by round
How often the higher-rated side won in each round, against all of 2026.
- R64 (33)76%
- R32 (39)74%
Show the numbers
| Round (matches) | Favourites won | 2026 average |
|---|---|---|
| R64 (33) | 76% | 2026: 78% |
| R32 (39) | 74% | 2026: 81% |
How predictable was it?
Share of rated main-draw matches won by the favourite, every 2026 event. Lower means more upsets.
- Macon PPA Challenger59%
- Charlotte PPA Challenger61%
- Boise PPA Challenger62%
- PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 202662%
- Atlanta PPA Challenger64%
- PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 202668%
- PPA Finals72%
- Grand Rapids PPA Challenger72%
- Mojo Energy Pouches Virginia Beach Open75%
- Rate Las Vegas Open76%
- Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup77%
- Veolia Chicago Cup78%
- Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet78%
- Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships78%
- Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open78%
- The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited79%
- Carvana Mesa Cup79%
- Veolia Texas Open80%
- SXY Newport Beach Open81%
- Veolia Arizona Open81%
- Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships82%
- Veolia Pickleball National Championships83%
- PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 202685%
- Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort86%
Show the numbers
| Event | Favourites won |
|---|---|
| Macon PPA Challenger | 59% |
| Charlotte PPA Challenger | 61% |
| Boise PPA Challenger | 62% |
| PPA Asia 500 Skechers Shenzhen Open 2026 | 62% |
| Atlanta PPA Challenger | 64% |
| PPA Asia 500 Sansan Tokyo Open 2026 | 68% |
| PPA Finals | 72% |
| Grand Rapids PPA Challenger | 72% |
| Mojo Energy Pouches Virginia Beach Open | 75% |
| Rate Las Vegas Open | 76% |
| Leapmotor Kuala Lumpur Cup | 77% |
| Veolia Chicago Cup | 78% |
| Fasenra Sacramento Open presented by Zimmer Biomet | 78% |
| Veolia Atlanta Pickleball Championships | 78% |
| Zimmer Biomet Cape Coral Open | 78% |
| The Carvana Masters Powered by Invited | 79% |
| Carvana Mesa Cup | 79% |
| Veolia Texas Open | 80% |
| SXY Newport Beach Open | 81% |
| Veolia Arizona Open | 81% |
| Pickleball Central Indoor National Championships | 82% |
| Veolia Pickleball National Championships | 83% |
| PPA Asia 1000 MB Hanoi Cup 2026 | 85% |
| Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort | 86% |
Wins by paddle brand
Main-draw wins against what the players' ratings expected, grouped by the brand each player plays now (from their tour profile, as of Oct 18, 2026 or later). A few players can swing a brand, and nobody's paddle wins matches by itself: read it as who had a good week, not which paddle is better.
- Joola (8)+1.9
- CRBN (5)+0.3
Show the numbers
| Brand (players) | Wins vs expected | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Joola (8) | +1.9 | won 9 of 16, expected 7.1 |
| CRBN (5) | +0.3 | won 7 of 14, expected 6.7 |
How the odds work
Before each match we take each side's PickleFitter Rating (doubles teams average their two players) and turn the gap into a chance of winning. Only matches where every player had at least 20 rated matches count. Since 2025 the favourite has won 77% of 6,053 such matches, and the odds are calibrated: when they say 75%, the favourite wins about 75% of the time. More on our methodology.
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